Impact of early detection and vaccination strategy in COVID-19 eradication program in Jakarta, Indonesia

Aldila D., Samiadji B.M., Simorangkir G.M., Khosnaw S.H.A., Shahzad M.

Department of Mathematics, Universitas Indonesia, Depok, Indonesia; Department of Mathematics, University of Raparin, Ranya, Kurdistan Region, Iraq; Department of Pure and Applied Mathematics, University of Haripur, KP, Pakistan


Abstract

Objective: Several essential factors have played a crucial role in the spreading mechanism of COVID-19 (Coronavirus disease 2019) in the human population. These factors include undetected cases, asymptomatic cases, and several non-pharmaceutical interventions. Because of the rapid spread of COVID-19 worldwide, understanding the significance of these factors is crucial in determining whether COVID-19 will be eradicated or persist in the population. Hence, in this study, we establish a new mathematical model to predict the spread of COVID-19 considering mentioned factors. Results: Infection detection and vaccination have the potential to eradicate COVID-19 from Jakarta. From the sensitivity analysis, we find that rapid testing is crucial in reducing the basic reproduction number when COVID-19 is endemic in the population rather than contact trace. Furthermore, our results indicate that a vaccination strategy has the potential to relax social distancing rules, while maintaining the basic reproduction number at the minimum possible, and also eradicate COVID-19 from the population with a higher vaccination rate. In conclusion, our model proposed a mathematical model that can be used by Jakarta’s government to relax social distancing policy by relying on future COVID-19 vaccine potential. © 2021, The Author(s).

Basic reproduction number; Contact tracing; COVID-19; Rapid testing; Vaccination


Journal

BMC Research Notes

Publisher: BioMed Central Ltd

Volume 14, Issue 1, Art No 132, Page – , Page Count


Journal Link: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85104259665&doi=10.1186%2fs13104-021-05540-9&partnerID=40&md5=81128d7e16dee27cb57a5080a993fa35

doi: 10.1186/s13104-021-05540-9

Issn: 17560500

Type: All Open Access, Gold, Green


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