Hansun S., Suryadibrata A.
Informatics Department, Universitas Multimedia Nusantara, Tangerang, Indonesia
As one of the most frequently traded commodities in the world, gold has been hugely impacted by the COVID-19 crisis. In this study, we try to apply a famous Deep Learning method for time series analysis, namely the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks, for future gold price prediction. However, rather than using a complex network architecture, we propose simple three layers LSTM networks that were trained on 4,219 training records and tested on 1,055 test records. We found that the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) value for the prediction results is 39.94162, while the Mean Absolute Percentage Error(MAPE) value is 17.66144. Moreover, the R2 score of the prediction results could reach 97.242%, which is considered high and comparable with other more complex networks’ architectures available in the literature. © Muk Publications.
COVID-19; Deep Learning; Gold price; LSTM; Prediction
International Journal of Computational Intelligence in Control
Publisher: MUK Publications and Distribution
Volume 13, Issue 2, Art No , Page 29 – 34, Page Count
Journal Link: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85110705492&partnerID=40&md5=c672aaa4cb7ab3f8b5b28b10d0050a93
Acter, T., Uddin, N., Das, J., Akhter, A., Choudhury, T.R., Kim, S., Evolution of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) as coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic: A global health emergency (2020) Sci. Total Environ, 730; El-Aziz, T.M., Stockand, J.D., Recent progress and challenges in drug development against COVID-19 coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2)-an update on the status (2020) Infect. Genet. Evol, 83; Spinelli, A., Pellino, G., COVID-19 pandemic: Perspectives on an unfolding crisis (2020) Br. J. Surg, 107 (7), pp. 785-787; Johns Hopkins University & Medicine (2021) Coronavirus Resource Center, , https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/; Gharib, C., Mefteh-Wali, S., Ben Jabeur, S., The Bubble Contagion Effect of COVID-19 Outbreak: Evidence from Crude Oil and Gold Markets (2021) Financ. Res. Lett, 38; Syahri, A., Robiyanto, R., The Correlation of Gold, Exchange Rate, and Stock Market on Covid-19 Pandemic Period (2020) J. Keuang. Dan Perbank, 24 (3), pp. 350-362; Atri, H., Kouki, S., Gallali, M., The Impact of COVID-19 News, Panic and Media Coverage on the Oil and Gold Prices: An ARDL Approach (2021) Resour. Policy, 72; (2020) The Impact of COVID-19 on Gold Price Volatility,” Int. J. Econ. Bus. Adm., 8 (4), pp. 353-364; (2021) Vo, X.V, p. 74; COVID-19 and Oil Market Crash: Revisiting the Safe Haven Property of Gold and Bitcoin,” Resour. Policy; Sami, I., Junejo, K.N., Predicting Future Gold Rates using Machine Learning Approach (2017) Int. J. Adv. Comput. Sci. Appl, 8 (12), pp. 92-99; Livieris, I.E., Pintelas, E., Pintelas, P., A CNN– LSTM Model for Gold Price Time-Series Forecasting (2020) Neural Comput. Appl, 32 (23), pp. 17351-17360; Vidal, A., Kristjanpoller, W., Gold Volatility Prediction using a CNN-LSTM Approach (2020) Expert Syst. Appl, 157; Shahid, F., Zameer, A., Muneeb, M., Predictions for COVID-19 with deep learning models of LSTM, GRU and Bi-LSTM (2020) Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, 140; Phi, M., Illustrated Guide to LSTM’s and GRU’s: A step by step explanation (2018) Towards Data Science, , https://towardsdatascience.com/illustrated-guide-to-lstms-and-gru-s-a-step-by-step-explanation-44e9eb85bf21; Hansun, S., Charles, V., Gherman, T., Indrati, C.R., A Tuned Holt-Winters White-Box Model for COVID-19 Prediction (2021) Int. J. Manag. Decis. Mak, 20 (3), pp. 241-262; Hansun, S., Charles, V., Indrati, C.R., Revisiting the Holt-Winters’ Additive Method for Better Forecasting (2019) Int. J. Enterp. Inf. Syst, 15 (2), pp. 43-57; Yahoo! finance (2021) Gold, , https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GC%3DF?p=GC%3DF; Moreno, J.J.M., Pol, A.P., Abad, A.S., Blasco, B.C., Using the R-MAPE Index as a Resistant Measure of Forecast Accuracy (2013) Psicothema, 25 (4), pp. 500-506. , http://www.psicothema.com/pdf/4144.pdf; Bhattacharjee, D., Problems and Prospects of the Religious Identity of Saraks (2020) Asian African Journal of Sociology and Anthropology, 1 (1), pp. 29-38; Brumback, T., Fonseca, D., Moynihan, G., A Mathematical Model For Freeway Incident Detection And Characterization: A Fuzzy Approach (2020) International Journal of Data Modelling and Knowledge Management, 5 (1), pp. 1-16; Adebowale, T., Aina, A., Ogundipe, T., USE OF INFORMATION COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY (ICT) FOR TECHNICAL SERVICES IN NIGERIAN ACADEMIC LIBRARIES (2020) Asian African Journal of Education and Social Sciences, 1 (1), pp. 7-13; Oladipo, S., Subair, S., Adebakin, A., TEACHING ETHICS AND QUALITATIVE EDUCATION: THE NIGERIAN CONTEXT (2020) Asian African Journal of Education and Social Sciences, 1 (1), pp. 79-88; Banerji, S., A Study of Issues & Challenges of Implementation of Information Technology in HRM (2020) Global Journal of Management and Business Studies, 1 (2); Gangal, V., Gupta, H., Public Expenditure and Economic Growth A Case Study of India (2020) Global Journal of Management and Business Studies, (1), p. 1; Iravani, M., STUDY OF POLITICAL PARTICIPATION OF WOMEN IN IRAN (2020) Modern Sociology, 1 (1), pp. 15-26; McCown, J., Soyer, M., THE NEXUS OF GROUP DYNAMICS AND PERSONALITY IN FPSG (2020) Modern Sociology, 1 (1), pp. 39-56; Acharya, S., Tax Reforms and their Impacts on Responsiveness in Nepal (2020) Asian African Journal of Economics and Finance, 1 (1), pp. 71-84; Kyureghyan, N., Computational Modeling of the Lumbar Spine Components: A Review (2021) International Journal of Computational Vision and Biomechanics, 7 (1), pp. 1-13; Khan, A., Niu, X., Zhang, Y., A Hybrid Approach for Mobile Agent Security using Reversible Watermarking (2020) Journal of Information Technology and Engineering, 5 (1), pp. 49-54; Wilkinson, J.S., August, E., Grant, 2020. COMPARING CHINESE AND AMERICAN MEDIA SYSTEMS JOURNALISM, TECHNOLOGY, AND CHANGE International Journal of Cross-Cultural Studies, 6 (1); Ashwin, C., Srinivasan, A., An Effective Neural Interface Based Locomotion for Physically Challenged (2021) International Journal of Engineering and Management, 5 (1), pp. 23-28; Fouliras, P., Using DEA for Network Efficiency Evaluation (2021) International Journal of Engineering and Management, 5 (1), pp. 1-16; Qi, Y., Zhang, M., The Impact of Manufacturing Strategy on Mass Customization: Moderating Effect of Environmental Uncertainty (2020) Chinese Journal of Decision Sciences, 1 (1); Rohit, H., Numerical Experiments by Improving Numerical Methods For Solving Game Problems through Computer Algebra (2020) Chinese Journal of Decision Sciences, 2 (1); Bamfo, B., ADEVRTISING LIKEABILITY AND ITS EFFECTIVENESS (2020) Indian Journal of Economics and Business Policy, 10 (1); Barretti, M., Bhatia, S., LOOKING FOR AND FINDING “THE NEXT BIG THING” BRINGING VIRTUAL TEAM CONCEPTS TO THE EXECUTIVE MBA AND MBA CLASSROOMSA REPRISE (2020) Indian Journal of Economics and Business Policy, (1), p. 10; Voulgari, G., How to Best Procure Innovation: The Case of the EU (2020) Journal of Business and Economics, 11 (4); Abdesselam, R., Topological Principal Component Analysis (2021) Stochastic Modelling and Computational Sciences, 1 (1), pp. 13-30; Anjum, M., Rehman, A., An Investigation of Project Evaluation Criteria in Pakistans Private Sector (2021) International Journal Data Modelling and Knowledge Management, 6 (1); Cimenler, O., Kingsley, A., Reeves, A., Kasti, M., Testing a Multisource Feedback Instrument in Healthcare Organizatios (2021) International Journal Data Modelling and Knowledge Management, 6 (1); Zalte, N., POETRY OF THE RESISTANCE: EXPLORING SHAHIRI THROUGH THE EYES OF THE ANITI-CASTE MOVEMENTS (2020) Socioanthropic Studies, 1 (1); Telang, S., RETHINKING THE POLITICAL PUBLIC FROM A DALIT STANDPOINT-ISSUES OF IDENTITY AND EPISTEMOLOGY (2020) Socioanthropic Studies, 1 (1); Chiou, C., Lee, C., Lin, J., Efficient Systolic Arrays for Power-Sum, Inversion, and Division in GF(2m) (2020) International Journal of Advanced Computer Engineering and Architecture, 5 (1), pp. 29-41; Khan, A., Niu, X., A Hybrid Approach for Mobile Agent Security using Reversible Watermarking (2020) International Journal of Advanced Computer Engineering and Architecture, 5 (1), pp. 49-54; Das, K., Srinivas, M., Chatterjee, S., Spatiotemporal Analysis Of A Prey Predator Model With Trophic Interaction With Harvesting (2019) American Journal Mathematics and Sciences, 4 (1), pp. 19-25; Gandhi, K., Preposterous Loom on Irrationality of Non Perfect Square Numbers (2020) American Journal Mathematics and Sciences, 5 (1), pp. 41-50; Gandhi, K., (2020) An “exposé” on Divisibility Test. American Journal Mathematics and Sciences, 5 (1), pp. 61-70; Cao, F., Development of Wireless Sensor with RFID for Water System Monitoring (2020) International Journal of Engineering, Contemporary Mathematics and Sciences, 5 (1), pp. 11-20; Castro, L., RFID Potential to Improve Asset Management of Mobile Equipment in Hospitals: Preliminary Results from a Field Study (2020) International Journal of Engineering, Contemporary Mathematics and Sciences, 5 (1), pp. 51-60; Hemalatha, M., Panimaya Salethammal, C., Gayathri, M., SYNTHESIS AND OPTICAL CHARACTERIZATION OF ZINC OXIDE AEROGEL NANO-MODIFIED SOL-GEL METHOD (2021) Journal of Multifunctional Materials and Photoscience, 1 (2), pp. 237-243. , December 2021; Pandya, K., Enhancement of Total Transfer Capability by Particle Swarm Optimization (2021) International Journal of Information Technology and Knowledge Management, 1 (1), pp. 69-77; Paul, T., Realization of Inverse Active Filters Using Single Current Differencing Buffered Amplifier (2021) Journal of Scientific Research, 13 (1); Sandra, A., Oad roughness modelling with clustered data using ANN approach (2019) International Journal of Civil and Structural Engineering, 1 (2); Tafheem, Z., Khusru, S., Structural behavior of steel building with concentric and eccentric bracing: A comparative study (2019) International Journal of Civil and Structural Engineering, 1 (2); Shojaei, M., Strategic planning for a food Industry Equipment manufacturing factory, Using SWOT Analysis, QSPM, and MAUT models (2019) Asian Journal of Management Research, 2 (1); Sirichalermpong, J., Ngavej, C., Non-retail franchising business model: Factors for strategic decisions in the formation phase (2020) Asian Journal of Management Research, 2 (2)
Indexed by Scopus